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Tian Martin, P.Eng., Water Resources Engineer. 519-819-3718

Contact Person

Essex Region Conservation Authority

Issued By

Conditions Statements-Flood Outlook

Status

Type

Shoreline

Shoreline – Conditions Statements-Flood Outlook

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted wind conditions tomorrow, lasting until Thursday afternoon, a Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect for the following area:

– Lake Erie shoreline including Pelee Island

Winds are currently mild blowing out of the southwest over Lake Erie. Forecasts predict that wind speeds will begin increasing early tomorrow morning and continue increasing to up to 60 km/hr throughout the day and evening. Wind direction will also begin to shift to out of the west southwest and then west overnight into Thursday, when it will begin to gradually decrease.

Lake levels are lower compared to previous years, but there is a concern for some damage with direct wave impact on shoreline structures and debris being thrown. There remains some risk of flooding and accelerated nearshore erosion along the Lake Erie shoreline including south Pelee Island as a result of increased wave activity. The forecasted conditions are expected to dissipate by 4:00 pm Thursday, November 27, 2025.

People are encouraged to take extra caution to avoid areas where flooding is occurring as well as rivers, streams, and shoreline areas during significant rainfall and wind events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping shoreline structures, and fast-moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from flowing or standing water as well as shoreline areas where the above hazards exist.

ERCA officials will continue to monitor conditions as they change, and issue upgraded advisories as required.

This advisory is in effect until: 4:00 PM, November 27, 2025.

2025-11-25 3:30 PM

Issuing Date & Time

2025-11-27 4:00 PM

Expiry Date & Time

Municipalities and Other Agencies:

Upon receipt, hand directly to the Flood Coordinator or Emergency Planner for your Municipality or Agency.

Media:

Upon receipt, hand directly to your newsroom.

Types of Flood Bulletins:

Watershed Conditions - Safety Bulletins

High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors that could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.

Watershed Conditions – Flood Outlook

Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.

Flood Watch Bulletins

Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.

Flood Warning Bulletins

Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities.

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